……. Obaseki can’t change anything
By Elizabeth Tejumola
The partial inauguration of Edo legislative house, according to the lawmakers, underlined the disequilibrium in the political stability of the state and the resultant insecurity that had characterised the state. This, they explained, has shut about 60 per cent of the Edo people out of the scheme of things, denying them the benefits of constituency projects, employment, judicious allocation of resources and other dividends of democracy.
This is also believed to have snowballed into a general lull in the economic activation of those people and places, increased crime rate and the palpable tension generated by the unbecoming violent clashes of the pro-Obaseki lawmakers and the already agitated uncommissioned faction believed to be loyal to former governor and deposed national chairman of the APC.
In the protest letter, signed by West-Idahosa, the principal partner, and titled, ‘Urgent and nationalistic appeal to intervene in the restoration of constitutional democracy in Edo State of Nigeria’, dated August 3, 2020, the lawmakers said; “Since then, the Assembly has been run by nine members for no justifiable reason whatsoever. By failing to inaugurate about 14 members-elect of the House, there is a huge social and political disequilibrium in the state.”
The greatest challenge for Obaseki at the polls will be the over 60 per cent of the total Edo State constituents, who have been denied representation on the floor of the house. It implies that the 17 house members and their teeming supporters will work against the governor at the polls. How he intends to convert this larger and aggrieved populace, mostly in APC dominated zones, into supporters and voters remains to be seen.
Again, he has lost the grassroots and no one wins any election with this kind of posturing, more so, the likes of Captain Idahosa Wells Okunbo, whom he turned to an enemy overnight is loved by many people in the grassroots and worst still, his challenger, Ize-Iyamu, is a well-known grassroots politician.
The infraction of partial inauguration of the house poses serious wide reaching criminal implications for the present Edo State Government. For instance, the state has operated on a budget of about N179billion for the 2020 fiscal year, purportedly passed by the same decimated House of Assembly. Now, if as much as 60 per cent were denied their rightful commissioning by Governor Obaseki, which means they were hindered from performing their legislative duties, and by extension over sixty per-cent of Edo people were denied their constitutionally guaranteed right to be represented in a democracy, one can one safely say, and be right, that Governor Obaseki is operating an unlawful budget.
Recall that Justice J. O. Ogebe of Oyo State Appeal Court in a ruling on December 1, 2006, had declared the impeachment of former Oyo State governor, Senator Rasheed Adewolu Ladoja, illegal, null and void, partly because the house did not muster the required majority vote for any bill to become a law.
Only 18 out of the stipulated 22, which should be the stipulated majority in a 33-member house declared the then governor impeached and installed his erstwhile deputy, Adebayo Alao Akala, as governor. Keen observers are also looking forward to the legally minded to interpret the law and proffer clarifications as to the legality or otherwise of operating a budget that fell short of constitutional requirements.
Whether a budget, which demands a majority vote by house members, but passed into law by only the House Speaker and a few other lawmakers, who are less than the legally defined simple majority is a workable legal document or not will be decided by the Nigerian judiciary. But before then, the electorate in the September 19 election, are most likely to pass unfavorable judgment on the outgoing administration.
This is because to an average informed Edo person, Obaseki committed an impious crime and ought to be impeached. Every Kobo he has spent from the illegal budget is a crime and punishable under the law. Another oddity that will work against Obaseki is the demographic distribution of Edo State.
Both Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu are from Edo South senatorial district. It is however instructive to repeat that the challenger is a respected grassroots politician, loved by his kith and kin. Their love for him has always been demonstrated during elections even when he was not in the central ruling party. For instance, neither Obaseki nor any other politician stand any chance to win against Ize-Iyamu in any election as far as the senatorial district is concerned.
He has always won and will win the upcoming elections if history and statistics could be valid indices of accurate forecast. Ize-Iyamu is a politician with strong personal political structures on ground, from the pre-APC days, when he founded the Grace Group, a structure that successfully midwifed the ACN and later APC. Ize-Iyamu is a man respected and loved by the who-is-who in Edo politics.
Unlike the incumbent, who relies on syndicated votes from other regions chiefly Edo north, where he rode on the Oshiomole factor to the government house, presently, Ize-Iyamu and Oshiomole are in the same camp against Godwin Obaseki. And boosting the rating of their camp is the fact that nearly all the notable politicians in the state, have now signed up for the Ize-Iyamu ambition.
The APC candidate will naturally carry the day in Oshiomole’s North senatorial district. The combination of a split victory from Edo North and Central senatorial districts coupled with an assured maximum vote from the South will see Ize-Iyamu coasting to a landslide victory in the upcoming elections.
Though the Central senatorial district, for the consideration of 2024 is likely to support incumbent Obaseki, simply because standing with the governor and ensuring his victory might see the baton of leadership switching in their direction come 2024. But votes from this district are the least among the three divisions in the state.
Worst still, the consideration they might have for Obaseki could as well be overwhelmed by the strong ties between Ize-Iyamu and major politicians in this region.
Ize-Iyamu has been a friend of the influential Igbinedion family since the 80s, during the Zero Party. He was an assistant to Lucky Igbinedion as a local government chairman and became the Chief of Staff when Lucky became governor, before eventually making him the Secretary to the State Government. All these factors have definitely propelled the unusual crowd and personalities seen during each of his campaigns.
For instance, when he took his campaign to Edo Central, apart from his running mate, Mallam Gani Audu and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the Federal Commissioner representing Edo in the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Mr. Henry Idahagbon, the Edo Central Campaign Director-general and two-time member, Federal House of Representatives, Mr Patrick Ikhariale, two-time former Commissioner, Chief Frank Okafi Erewele, the strong man of Edo Central politics, Chief Francis Inegbeneki, former Civil Commissioner, Ken Ihensekhien, Mr Abu Momodu among others were present to lend their support.
In Edo North, the list is inexhaustible with personalities like former Deputy Governor, Rev. Peter Obadan; Senator representing Edo North Senatorial District, Senator Francis Alimikhena, the member representing Akoko-Edo Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives. These and many more political heavyweights appear to have deserted Obaseki for an old friend and ally, Ize-Iyamu.
Knowing full well that the crowds seen at political rallies may not be the true representation of the peoples’ love for a contestant, the calibre of politicians, who have signified their disapproval of Obaseki’s re-election is a better pointer to the fact that he has been roundly rejected by his people, and as such, cannot and will not win the September 19 governorship election in Edo State. (CONCLUDED)
Tejumola wrote from Abuja